中国对美国木质林产品出口波动分析  

Empirical Analysis on Causes for Exportation Fluctuation of Timber-Forest Products from China to America:Based on CMS Model

作　　者：刘庆博[1] 刘俊昌[1] 陈文汇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《世界林业研究》2012年第5期53-57,共5页World Forestry Research

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(HJ2010-2)

摘　　要：采用联合国统计署2002—2010年的贸易数据,运用CMS模型对中国出口美国木质林产品的波动进行实证分析。结果表明:竞争力效应是中国出口美国木质林产品增长的主要因素,结构效应则是中国对美国木质林产品出口波动的最主要动因,交叉效应作用不明显;2008—2010年,受金融危机的影响,中国及主要国家对美国木质林产品的出口都出现了负增长,这也体现在增长效应对各国出口显著的抑制作用上。Using the constant market share （CMS） model, this paper analyzes the exportation fluctuation of timber-forest products from China to America by 2002--2010 trade date from UN Comtrade. It finds that the exportation growth of Chinese timber-forest products to America is mainly from the competitive effect. The structural effect is the mainly reason for the exportation fluctuation of timber-forest products from China to America; cross-effect is not significantly. By the financial crisis from 2008 to 2010, the exportation of timber-forest products from China and the main countries to America are negative increase; this also reflected in growth effects inhibit the exportation of China and the main countries

关 键 词：中国 美国 木质林产品 出口波动 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济] F752.7