基于HIMS的渭河中游黑峪口子流域径流模拟及其对气候变化的响应研究  

Runoff Simulation in the Heiyukou Sub-Basin of the Weihe River Basin and Its Responses to Climate Change Based on HIMS

作　　者：梁康[1,2] 刘昌明[1,3] 王中根[1] 刘晓伟[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京1008754 [4]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第10期13-14,共2页Yellow River

摘　　要：水文模型是认识水循环机理、模拟水文系统及其对气候变化响应的重要工具和方法。基于国内自主研发的水文综合模拟系统(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System,HIMS),选择渭河中游的黑峪口子流域(面积1 476 km2)作为研究对象,构建黑峪口子流域的集总式水文模型,模拟黑峪口子流域1991—2000年的日径流过程,并在此基础上模拟8种气候变化情景(降水增加10%、不变、减少10%;蒸发增加10%、不变、减少10%)下的径流响应。研究取得了以下几点认识:①模型的整体模拟效果评价:在模型率定期(1991—1996年)Nash-Suttcliffe系数为0.64,相关系数为0.65,体积误差为5%;在模型验证期(1997—2000年)Nash-Suttcliffe效率系数为0.63,相关系数为0.66,体积误差为10%;②降雨的空间差异性较大,并且降雨是径流的直接来源,而在整个黑峪口子流域内只用到了3个气象站的连续观测资料,导致在整个子流域内降雨站点分布较少的情况对于径流模拟效果并不理想(Nash-Suttcliffe系数未大于0.7);③模型的体积误差在验证期偏大,约为10%,引起体积误差偏大的原因是模型在对最大洪峰的模拟上效果不理想,模型还需要在洪峰模拟上改进;④径流对于降雨与蒸发的响应均很敏感,并且径流对于降雨量的敏感性高于对于潜在蒸发的敏感性,在降水量不变的情况下蒸发每增加10%,年径流量减少0.2亿m3,在降水增加10%和减少10%时,年径流量的变化率分别为17.1%和-16.0———而在蒸发不变的情况下,降水每增加10%,年径流量增加0.6亿m3,在蒸发增加10%和减少10%时,年径流量的变化率分别为-4.6%和5.0%,降水引起的径流变化率为蒸发引起的径流变化率的3～4倍;⑤径流与降雨量的变化呈现正相关关系,而径流与潜在蒸发量的变化呈现负相关关系,并且径流对于降雨量和潜在蒸发量的响应均呈现非线性关系。The Weihe River, as the first largest branches of the Yellow River, is intensely affected by human activities. We took the Heiyukou Sub-basin （HYK）, located in the middle areas of the Weihe River Basin, as the study area and constructed a lumped hydrological model to simulate daily runoff and its responses to climate change. Based on the hydrological data, we choose the period from 1991 to 1996 years as calibration period, and the period from 1997 to 2000 years as validation period. In addition, we established eight climate change scenarios to help to analyze the responses of runoff to climate change based onthe validaled hydrological model. Main results are as follows： ①the model had a good performance in daily runoff simulation. The Nash-Suttcliffe Coefficient （NSC） , correlation coefficient （ CC）, water balance error （WE） were 0.64, 0.65 and 5% in the calibration period, respectively. In validation period, the three evaluation indexes were 0.63,0.66 and 10% ; ②the precipitation plays an important role in rainfall-runoff simulation. It is the source of runoff. However, rainfall data come from only three rainfall gauged stations in this research. Considering the spatial inhomogeneity of rainfall, the rainfall data had a related poor performance in coefficient of water balance and flood peak; ③water balance error （WE） in the validation is 10%, which is unsatisfactory. The reason is the poor performance of HIMS in the simulation of peak floods, which need to be improved ; @the daily runoff is sensitive to the changes of precipitation and potential evaporation, and the sensitivity value to precipitation is higher than to evaporation： when evaporation increased 10%, annual runoff would decrease 0.2 × 108 m^3. The change rate of annual runoff was 17.1% and - 16.0% under precipitation changed 10% and - 10%, respectively. When precipitation increased 10%, annual runoff would increase 0.6 x 108 m3. The change rate of annual runoff was - 4.6% and 5.0% under evaporation changed 10% and - 10%

关 键 词：径流模拟 HIMS 气候变化 渭河流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]