黄河下游水沙突变特征分析  

Study on Runoff and Sediment Process Variation in the Lower Yellow River

作　　者：李文文[1] 傅旭东[1] 吴文强[2] 吴保生[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第10期19-20,共2页Yellow River

摘　　要：河川径流是黄河流域最主要的水资源,1950年以来黄河下游水沙量总体呈递减趋势。由于水资源在黄河下游社会经济发展中占有十分重要的地位,因此有必要了解黄河下游来水来沙的变化趋势。水文循环、自然条件的剧烈变化和流域内人类活动的影响通常会引起流域水文系统运行方式的改变,进而使径流序列发生变异,呈现出阶段性特征,并且变异前和变异后的水文序列总体分布发生显著改变。了解和诊断径流序列的变化规律,对水文分析、模拟和预测中统计方法的选择以及制定防洪减灾对策和水环境治理措施都具有重要意义。掌握黄河下游来水来沙变化趋势及变异成因是黄河下游水资源合理开发利用及水沙调节的关键。本文使用非参数统计方法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法和Pettitt变点检测方法对黄河下游5个水文站的年来水量与年来沙量系列分别进行了趋势检测及变异点检测。研究结果显示,黄河下游年来水量与年输沙量一级变点均出现在1985年,变异成因主要为气候变化及龙羊峡等水利工程建设运行。年来水量与年输沙量二级变点出现的年份不完全一致,5个水文站年输沙量系列的二级突变点为1996年,年输沙量系列突变时间晚于年来水量序列突变的时间,并且年输沙量系列的突变规律性较好,三门峡水库、刘家峡水库及小浪底水库的建设运行是二级变点出现的主要因素。Since 1950, the runoff and sediment load have shown decreasing trend in the Lower Yellow River, and the river runoff is the main water resources of the Yellow River basin. The changes of runoff and sediment load were caused by the hydrological cycle, the natural conditions of dramatic change and watershed human activities, which led to changes in watershed runoff and sediment, mutated runoff sequence and show the phase characteristics. These reflect the significant changes of the value of the statistical characteristics. In order to understand the law of runoff and sediment load in the Lower Yellow River, it is important to ensure the trend and mutation points of water and sediment sequence for the water resources exploitation and utilization in the Lower Yellow River. In this paper, the runoff and suspended sediment load about five hydrological stations in the Lower Yellow River were detected the trend and the mutation by the MannKendall trend test and Pettit change point detection method. The results show that the first change point of the annual runoff and suspended sediment load appeared in 1985 in the lower Yellow River. Variation was caused by climate change and the construction of Longyangxia Dam. The second change point was not exactly at the same year in the annual runoff and suspended sediment load. The second change point of the annual suspended sediment load appeared in 1996 in the Lower Yellow River. The change year of the annum suspended sediment load was later than the annum runoff load. The construction and operation of Sanmenxia, Liujiaxia and Xiaolangdi reservoirs is a major factor for the second change point.

关 键 词：黄河下游 来水来沙系列 趋势检验 变点检测 

分 类 号：TV882.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]