外溢性、公共产品与经济增长——基于空间面板模型的实证检验和效应分解  

Spillovers,Public Products and Economic Growth:The Empirical Analysis and Effect Decomposition Based on Spatial Panel Model

作　　者：李真[1] 刘小勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院,山东济南250014 [2]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2012年第10期57-63,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年项目<省管县财政体制背景下省以下财政分权;转移支付对县域政府霆为影响实证研究>(12YJC790125);山东省自然科学基金青年项目<地区性行政垄断与区域市场整合机制研究>(ZR2011GQ008)

摘　　要：利用空间面板Durbin模型,估计了中国省际公共产品和服务供给对经济增长的当期影响效应,并将公共产品和服务供给对经济增长的总效应分解为直接效应和间接效应。结果显示:公共产品和公共服务供给对经济增长具有显著正向效应,人均基本建设支出和人均文教科卫支出的增长提高了当地经济增长率。但是,基本建设支出的间接效应不显著为正,远远低于其对经济增长的直接效应,而文教科卫支出的间接效应显著为正,并且远远高于其直接效应。从长期来看,空间外溢性的存在,使文教科卫支出对整体经济增长率的影响更大,远远高于基本建设支出。Using newly developed spatial panel-data Durbin model,this paper made empirical analysis on current period effect of Chinese provincial public goods supply on economic growth,which can be decomposed into direct and indirect effect.The results show that public goods supply has significantly positive effect on economic growth;growth of infrastructure expenditure per capital and culture,education,science,health expenditure（CESH expenditure） per capital promote local economic growth.However,the indirect effect of infrastructure expenditure is insignificantly positive,which is far below its direct effect on economic growth.The indirect effect of CESH expenditure is significantly positive,which is far beyond its direct effect.In the long run,spatial spillovers make CESH expenditure much more important to economic growth than infrastructure expenditure.

关 键 词：外溢性 公共产品 经济增长 空间面板模型 

分 类 号：F726.1[经济管理—产业经济]