高致病性禽流感(HPAI)流行病学仿真研究  

Simulation Research of HPAI Epidemiology

作　　者：谢超 谢仲伦[2] 贾智宁[2] 杨楠[2] 孙承英[2] 阚培祥 

机构地区：[1]美国新墨西哥州立大学 [2]中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,青岛266032 [3]多伦多信息与空间研究中心

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2012年第11期2393-2403,2409,共12页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30671559;30371007);科技部十五攻关(2004BA519A25)

摘　　要：在总结HPAI传播和扩散的生物-技术-经济互作机理及实地调研信息的基础上,建立了中国中小鸡场HPAI流行病学动态仿真模型;研究了鸡群免疫与否对HPAI传播和扩散的影响、流行病学变化特征及病毒在群体中的保存和传播机理等。研究结论不仅对HPAI的流行病学调查、监测和防控具有积极指导意义,而且对其他疫病的防控也具有重要的借鉴作用。Through summarizing the biological-technological-economic interaction mechanisms about the spread and diffusion of the HPAI, and on the basis of the field research, the HPAI epidemiological dynamic simulation model in the small and medium-sized farms for China was established. Researches on the effect of vaccination towards the spread and diffusion of HPAI in chicken was conducted, and features of the epidemiological changes for HPAI were also studied, as well as the maintenance and transmission mechanism of the virus in the population. The conclusions of this study not only can provide an instruction for the epidemiology investigation, surveillance, prevention and control of HPAI, but also have positive significance for the prevention and control of other diseases.

关 键 词：HPAI传播模型 免疫 流行特征 感染机理 成本效益 扩散距离 系统动力学仿真 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]