基于蒙特卡罗的高速公路项目全寿命周期成本模型  

Life-Cycle Cost Model Based on the Monte Carlo of the Highway Project

作　　者：黄智芳[1] 龙琼[1] 张瑾帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南城市学院土木工程学院,湖南益阳413000

出　　处：《湖南城市学院学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期22-25,共4页Journal of Hunan City University:Natural Science

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科研基金资助项目(09C211)

摘　　要：在分析高速公路项目全寿命周期成本构成的基础上,采用成本现值和等额成本年值指标构建了高速公路项目全寿命周期成本数学模型,并针对成本计算中的不确定性,运用蒙特卡罗方法对实例进行了模拟,验证了模型和模拟方法的实用性,为高速公路项目建设方案决策和节约成本提供了科学方法和理论依据.On the basis of the analysis on the life-cycle cost components of highway project, cost of present value and annual value were applied as the index to establish the life-cycle cost model. For the uncertainty in the cost calculation, the method of Monte Carlo was used to simulate instance, the practicality of the model and simulation methods was verified, the scientific method and theoretical basis were provided for program decision-making and cost-saving on highway project.

关 键 词：高速公路 全寿命周期成本 成本现值 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：U415.13[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]