1961—2008年新疆极端降水事件的变化趋势  

Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events over Xinjiang during 1961—2008

作　　者：张延伟[1,2,3] 魏文寿[1,4] 姜逢清[1] 刘明哲[1,3] 王雯雯[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院新疆积雪雪崩站,新疆乌鲁木齐835000 [4]中国气象局新疆沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [5]新疆大学数学与科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《山地学报》2012年第4期417-424,共8页Mountain Research

基　　金：科技部公益行业科研专项:GYHY200806011;中国科学院"西部之光"项目:RCPY200902;国家自然科学基金面上项目:41171066;国家自然科学基金:新疆天山北麓基于树木年轮气候重建的云杉种群生态研究(41071072)~~

摘　　要：利用新疆1961—2008年逐日降水、最高气温和最低气温资料,采用ETCDDMI定义的极端降水事件的阈值,然后统计出极端降水事件的每年湿期降水总量、简单降水强度指数、月最大1 d降水量、月最大5 d降水量、重湿日数和连续干日,并对其空间分布和时间趋势进行分析。结果表明,新疆极端降水事件阈值的空间分布存在明显的地域差异,北部地区在48 a极端指数变化比其他地区显著;每年湿期降水总量、简单降水强度指数、月最大1 d降水量、月最大5 d降水量、重湿日数和连续干日的空间特征基本相似,除连续干日,总体呈自东南向西北递增的态势,且高值中心均分布于山区一带。48年来,除连续干日,极端降水事件的其他5个指标呈上升趋势,并于1980年左右发生了突变现象。48年来,极端降水事件的6个指标均存在明显的年代际特征,而且还存在准3 a和7 a的震荡周期。Based on daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data of 37 meteorological stations over Xinjiang during 1961--2008, the extreme precipitation indices were determined for different stations by the ETCDDMI, and then, six indices including PRCPTOT, SDII, RXlday, RXSday, R95 and CDD of extreme precipitation indices were counted and their spatial characteristics and temporary trends were analyzed. The results showed that the extreme precipitation indices indicated the remarkable regional difference, some region show in- creasing and other show decreasing. The spatial characteristics of PRCPTOT, SDII, RXlday, RXSday, R95 and CDD of extreme precipitation indices were similar, i.e. PRCPTOT, SDII, RXlday, RXSday and R95 were all characterized with an increase from the southeast to northwest of Xinjiang and their high-value centers were located in the Mountain. For recent 48 years, 6 indices except CDD showed a decreasing trend,which was more significant increasing in most region of Xinjiang for these 5 indices. However, the extreme precipitation indices showed obvi- ous trend and abruption change. Six indices of extreme precipitation events all indicated the remarkable inter-dec- adal variability and furthermore, the qusia -3 and qusia 7 year oscillating period existed for these four indices dur- ing 1961--2008.

关 键 词：新疆 ETCDDMI 极端降水 

分 类 号：P462.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468.024