春节效应对布鲁杆菌病监测分析影响的探讨  

The thinking of the affect of Brucellosis surveillance analysis of spring festival effect from a epidemic situation briefing

作　　者：余晓花[1] 肖宛凝[2] 李晔[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心鼠疫布氏菌病预防控制基地,吉林白城137000 [2]吉林大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中国地方病防治》2012年第5期349-352,共4页Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Diseases

摘　　要：目的分析2012年2月全国布鲁杆菌病疫情同比上升原因,提出并分析春节效应对监测分析的影响。方法对2012年2月全国布鲁杆菌病疫情监测资料进行三间分布的流行病学描述,对春节效应分析采用卡方检验。结果 2008～2012年全国布鲁杆菌病春节所在月份平均发病率与非春节月份平均发病率差异有统计学意义(χ2=9183.16,P<0.01),2008～2012年1月包含春节月份与不包含春节月份的平均发病率差异有统计学意义(χ2=59.88,P<0.01),2008～2012年2月包含春节月份与不包含春节月份的平均发病率差异有统计学意义(χ2=959.7,P<0.01)。结论 2012年2月全国布鲁杆菌病疫情同比上升的原因由春节效应、闰年与部分地区疫情上升等综合因素导致,春节效应可使春节所在月份的布鲁杆菌病报告发病率同比降低,采用调整ARIMA模型、移动平均等分析方法可减少监测分析中春节效应的影响。Objectives To analyze the reasons of national Brucellosis epidemic situation year on year increase in Feb 2012 year,to bring up and analyzing the effect of Brucellosis surveillance analysis of spring festival effect.Methods To describe surveillance data of national Brucellosis epidemic situation by epidemiological method in Feb 2012 year,to analyzing spring festival effect by chi-square test.Results Year on year analysis,there are the statistical difference between the average incidence of the months including spring festival and the average incidence of the months non-including spring festival（χ2=9183.16,P0.01）in national Brucellosis from 2008 to 2012;link relative ration analysis,there are the statistical difference between the average incidence of the months including spring festival and the average incidence of the months non-including spring festival（χ2=59.88,P0.01）in national Brucellosis in Jan from 2008 to 2012,there are the statistical difference between the average incidence of the months including spring festival and the average incidence of the months non-including spring festival（χ2=959.7,P0.01）in national Brucellosis in Feb from 2008 to 2012.Conclusions The reasons of national Brucellosis epidemic situation year on year increase in Feb 2012 year include the spring festival effect and the leap year and the increasing of Brucellosis epidemic situation of several provinces.Reported incidence ratio of Brucellosis in the months that include spring festival year on year decline caused of spring festival effect.To use the methods of adjusted ARIMA model／move average could reduce the spring festival effect among Brucellosis surveillance analysis.

关 键 词：布鲁杆菌病 疫情 春节效应 监测分析 

分 类 号：R516.7[医药卫生—内科学]