中国宏观信息、货币政策对股票市场的影响  

The impact of Chinese Macroeconomic Information and Monetary Policy on Stock Market

作　　者：邹文理[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学商学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《广州大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第9期59-65,共7页Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：广州大学哲学社会科学青年博士课题(201205QNBS)

摘　　要：考察中国宏观经济信息、货币政策对股市的影响效果,结果发现:宏观经济变量对股票收益基本没有解释力;而且,2001年7月前,货币政策对股票收益影响微弱,2001年7月后,货币政策对股票收益影响非常显著,扩张性货币政策有助于股价上升,紧缩性政策促使股价下降。同时,行业股价指数分析表明货币政策对房地产、金融等新兴行业影响较大,对公用事业等传统行业影响较小。当前中国股市运行脱离了经济基本面,股市尚无国民经济"晴雨表"作用,但却与政策因素密切相关,表现出一种强烈的"政策市"。This paper analyzes the impact of Chinese macroeconomic information and monetary policy on stock market. The results show that macroeconomic information has no impact on the stock market, but monetary policy has significant impact on the stock market. Expansionary monetary policy would help stock price go up, and tighte ning money policy will make stock price go down. Besides, monetary policy has more impact on newly developed industry, like real estate and finance industries, but has less impact on traditional industries, like public service in dustry. The performances of the Chinese stock market are inconsistent with its economy economic fundamentals. The Chinese stock market can＇t realize the effect of national economic ＂weather glass＂, but it is closely related to the policy and exhibits an intensive ＂policy market＂ Dhenomenon

关 键 词：货币政策 股票市场 M2 政策市 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]