两种方法在坝体沉降监测中的应用  

Application of Two Methods in Dam Settlement Monitoring

作　　者：赵亮[1] 陈小浩[1] 杨军[2] 朱国成 

机构地区：[1]河海大学地球科学与工程学院,南京市210098 [2]中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广州市510301 [3]连云港三合港航建设工程有限公司,江苏连云港222042

出　　处：《勘察科学技术》2012年第5期54-57,共4页Site Investigation Science and Technology

摘　　要：大坝沉降的高精度预测对水库正常运行起着重要作用。利用灰色模型与时间序列对大坝沉降监测点的沉降进行预测,并与实测数据进行比较分析。结果表明,基于时间序列模型的预测精度优于灰色模型,更适用于实际应用,较好地描述了沉降监测点的变化规律。High precision prediction of dam settlement plays an important role in the normal operation of dam.Time series theory and grey model were used to predict the settlement of dam settlement monitoring points,and the obtained results are compared and analyzed with the measured data.The final results show that the forecasting accuracy based on ARIMA model is better than that based on GM model,the ARIMA model is fitter to be used in practice,and can better describe the change rule of settlement monitoring points.

关 键 词：大坝沉降预测 灰色模型 时间序列 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]