经济冲击与汇率制度选择:基于中国的理论和经验研究  

Economic Shocks and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime:Theory and Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：王博[1] 刘澜飚[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院金融学系

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2012年第3期3-23,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部重大攻关项目"全球金融危机与国际货币金融体系改革研究(09JZD0016)";教育部重点基地重大项目"国际金融危机对我国经济的影响及其应对方(2009JJD790027)";教育部人文社科青年项目"基于金融史学和政治经济学视角的人民币国际化问题研究(11YJC790171)"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：经济冲击是影响中国汇率制度选择的重要因素,本文在传统国际宏观经济学框架内引入增长账户,通过增加对供给方面的考察补充和完善了传统国际宏观经济学关于汇率制度选择的理论,建立起一个解释人民币汇率制度选择的新框架,认为如果当前我国经济面临的主要冲击是来自实体经济部门的实际冲击,则人民币汇率制度应该把握好时机加快改革,向更富有灵活性的浮动汇率制度演进;如果经济面临的主要冲击来自于货币部门,则应该继续维持钉住"一篮子"参考货币(或美元)的有弹性的盯住汇率制度。基于结构VAR模型对人民币实际有效汇率演进的实证研究表明,与在工业化国家发现的名义冲击对实际汇率的波动具有较好解释力的情况相反,相对实际需求冲击和供给冲击能够更好地解释我国实际有效汇率在样本估计区间内绝大部分的变动,这对于指导目前所进行的人民币汇率制度选择与完善人民币的汇率形成机制的改革意义重大。Economic shock is an important element in the choice of exchange rate regime,this paper builds a new framework to explain the evolution of the exchange rate Regime of Renminbi by introducing growth account into the traditional international macroeconomics by adding the analysis of the supply side.From the model we conclude the exchange rate regime of Renminbi should evolve into the more flexible exchange rate regime if the shocks in our economy are mostly from the real sector.But if the shocks are mainly the monetary ones,the exchange regime should go on peg a basket of money（or dollar）.This paper also uses a structural VAR model to study the relative importance of different types of Macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate between 1980 and 2006.The empirical result shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the Variation in real exchange rate changes which is different from the result found in industrialized countries.Lastly we put some suggestions for the reform of the Renminbi exchange rate regime.

关 键 词：实际冲击 货币冲击 汇率制度 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F832.6F124