鲁西南8—9月阴雨日数与前期大气环流关系  

Relationship between the Raining Days during August-Semptember in the Southwest of Shandong and the Early Atmospheric Circulation

作　　者：景安华 孔凡忠 

机构地区：[1]菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽274000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2012年第5期30-34,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

摘　　要：对鲁西南1979—2008年8—9月阴雨日数进行统计分析,发现8—9月阴雨日数总体呈上升趋势;与前期北半球500 hPa月平均高度场进行相关分析,结果表明:8—9月阴雨日数与北半球500 hPa平均高度场存在显著的滞后相关性,共得出45个优势相关区,相关区具有明显的区域性,大多数优势相关区出现在60°N以南地区。阴雨日数与前期极涡位置及强弱有很好的对应关系。从优势相关区提取的预报因子具有明显的季节性,上一年秋冬季预报因子占6/9;建立预报方程,试用效果较好。Based on the statistical analysis of the raining days in the southwest of Shandong during August-September from 1979-2008, the result showed a upward trend. According to the correlation analysis with the previous monthly average height field at Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa, the raining days and the average height field of northern Hemisphere 500 hPa had a significant lag correlation. 45 advantage-related areas were obtained with significant regional correlation zone and most of the areas were in south of 60~N. Raining days had a good correlation with the pre-position and strength of the polar vortex. Forecast elements extracted from the advantage-related areas were apparently seasonal. The forecast elements for autumn and winter last year accounted for 6 / 9. The application result of prediction equations was good.

关 键 词：鲁西南 8—9月 阴雨日数 平均高度场 相关分析 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]