东亚货币合作进程中人民币区域化研究——基于SVAR模型的分析  

Study on RMB Regionalization in East Asia Monetary Cooperation Based on the Structural SVAR Model

作　　者：陈文慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行南宁中心支行,广西南宁530028

出　　处：《区域金融研究》2012年第10期63-69,共7页Journal of Regional Financial Research

摘　　要：2008年世界金融危机,美元的稳定性受到广泛质疑;2010年以来欧元危机不断深化,中国的经济增长或多或少受到了制约,但当美元、欧元正在遭遇信用危机,国际金融形势和环境的迅速变化为人民币获得加速区域化乃至国际化的契机。东亚是中国对外关系的重点,中国的对外贸易的主要地区、外国直接投资高度集中地。因此,本文在前人研究的基础上,基于多变量SVAR模型,通过实证分析东亚货币合作的现状,认为人民币应以东亚化作为区域化以致国际化的实现路径,并以东亚货币合作作为达此目的的桥梁,力求从新的角度得到一些对正在进行的人民币区域化有益的启示。The stability of the U.S. dollar has been widely questioned since the global crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign-debt crisis of 2010 deepens, investors have shown loss of confidence in Europe. This rapidly changing international financial situation and environment have offered an opportunity for accelerating the process of regionalization of RMB, even further internationalization. East Asia is the focus of China＇ s foreign relations and major foreign trade partner, FDI is highly concentrated. Therefore, based on previous studies, this paper uses the Structural SVAR model to analyze the status quo of the monetary cooperation in East Asia. Finding of this paper is that, RMB regionalization of East Asia and internationalization should rely on the East Asian currency cooperation to build up a realization path. Moreover, some new views are given to the ongoing RMB regionalization to internationalization based on the finding.

关 键 词：人民币区域化 东亚货币合作 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F823[经济管理—财政学]