房地产投机泡沫测度实证研究  

Empirical study of measuring methods of real estate's speculative bubble

作　　者：赖一飞[1] 唐松[1] 黄芮[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2012年第5期630-635,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(编号:10YJA630077)

摘　　要：分析了房地产泡沫的成因,基于投机的房地产泡沫理论,建立房地产价格的回归模型,并在此基础上,建立了房地产投机泡沫测度的计量模型.然后,运用该模型对我国房地产市场进行投机泡沫测度研究,结果表明我国房地产市场在整体上并不存在泡沫,但已处在泡沫的边缘.最后,对社会上普遍存在的泡沫论观点进行了分析,指出我国房地产投资与宏观经济指标出现了脱节,存在过度投资,并不是泡沫,从而也支持了投机测度模型的结论.The causes of the real estate bubble is analyzed based on the speculative housing bubble theory.A real estate price regression model is established firstly;and then a real estate bubbles measurement model is established too.Then the model is use to measure the speculative bubbles of China＇s real estate market.The results show that the real estate market in China,on the whole,there does not exist bubble,but has reached the edge of the bubble.Finally,the paper analyzes the social common bubble viewpoint in China,and points out that the real estate investment and macroeconomic indicators presented the disjointed.There exists excessive investment in development,but not bubble,which also support the speculative measure model conclusion.

关 键 词：房地产 投机泡沫 测度模型 过度投资 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]