非常规油气资源经济评价研究  

The Economic Evaluation Research of Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources

作　　者：刘清志[1] 王婷[1] 窦吉芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266555

出　　处：《河南科学》2012年第10期1544-1548,共5页Henan Science

基　　金：中国石油大学(华东)自主创新科研计划项目(12cx06003B)

摘　　要：非常规油气资源已成为重要的战略接替资源,且由于独特的形成、富集与分布规律,非常规油气资源并不能使用常规的方法进行开采.首先对油气资源经济评价进行定义,在此基础上将常规油气资源经济评价广泛使用的净现值法与实物期权法进行对比,针对非常规油气资源的特点,该案例研究构建以实物期权法为基础的非常规油气资源经济评价方法,通过对西部某省份非常规油气资源勘探开发投资项目进行分析,结果显示:当前应该持有资产以待开发;第一年无论价格是上升还是下降,都选择持有资产以期获取更大的收益;第二年在价格上涨的趋势下,非常规油气资源理应立即开发,如果价格下跌,则继续持有.该案例研究为非常规油气资源勘探开发投资项目不同阶段应该选择持有以待开发还是立即开发提供了依据,验证了以实物期权为基础的非常规油气资源经济评价方法的适用性.Unconventional oil and gas resources have been an important replacement of strategic resources.Because of the unique formation,accumulation and distribution,unconventional oil and gas resources can’t be mined using conventional methods.At first this article gives the definition of oil and gas resources economic evaluation,then compares the traditional NPV method of conventional oil and gas resources and real options method.According to the characteristics of unconventional oil and gas resources,the article constructs economic evaluation of unconventional oil and gas resources on the basis of real options.By analyzing unconventional oil and gas resources exploration and development investment projects in some western provinces,the results show that the current assets should be hold for development;in the first year whether the price is up or down,it should be choosen to hold assets in order to gain more earnings;in the second year under the trend of prices,unconventional oil and gas resources should be immediately developed,if the price falls,it should be continued to hold.Thus the study provides a basis for unconventional oil and gas exploration and development of investment projects in different stages when should be chosen to hold for development or immediately develop.The results of analysis verify the applicability for economic evaluation of unconventional oil and gas resources on the basis of real options.

关 键 词：非常规油气资源 经济评价 实物期权 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]