统计预测在医院管理中的作用  

Statistics forecast applied to the hospital management

作　　者：崔丽霞[1] 马颖[2] 王海玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省红十字血液中心,河南郑州450053 [2]河南省肿瘤医院,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《河南医学研究》2000年第2期185-187,共3页Henan Medical Research

摘　　要：目的 :从医院管理的需要出发 ,对医院目标管理中的主要指标进行统计预测。方法 :用趋势直线预测法和趋势季节模型预测法。结果 :通过预测可以反映现象发展变化的趋势 ,掌握现象变化的规律 ,为领导决策和制定长远规划提供依据 ;为统计预测提供必要的条件。结论 :季节变动指数不具备通用性 ,要根据医院情况编制适合自己特点的季节变动指数。结合应用季节模型预测法预测医院的分季度统计指标值 ,是医院统计预测技术中的一种预测方法。Objective: Based on the need of the hospital management,This article says the main target statistics forecast in the hospital aim management.Methods: The tendency straightline forecast method & the tendency season mould forecast method.Results: By the forecast, It could reflect the tendency of the phenomenon development and change, show the phenomenon change rules,help the leader to make the correct decision, provide the basis in making a long term plan and the necessary condition of the statistics forecast.Conclusion: The season changing index number is not general, we must make the season changing index number by ourselves basing on the specific conditions of the hospital, which must be fit for our own characters. The quarterly statistics forecast targer number by the season mould forecast method, is a good method of the statistics forecast technology.

关 键 词：统计 预测 医院管理 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]