青海省第三产业与能源强度关系的实证研究——基于VAR和SVAR模型  

The Empirical Study of the Relationship Between the Tertiary Industry and the Energy Intensity of Qinghai Province ——Based on VAR and SVAR Model

作　　者：张泊远[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2012年第6期59-64,共6页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：陕西师范大学"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目"中国特色社会主义发展经济学研究"

摘　　要：青海省在经济发展中发挥矿产资源优势的同时,也面临着能源强度高,产业结构不合理以及第三产业发展缓慢等问题。文章运用VAR和SVAR模型,对青海省第三产业和能源强度的关系进行了分析。研究表明:在短期内,第三产业的发展能够显著降低能源强度;在中长期内,第三产业的发展对降低能源强度的作用趋于平稳。据此,应大力发展第三产业中的优势行业,尤其要发展旅游业,这样能够在发挥青海省旅游资源优势的同时,实现产业结构调整和降低能源强度的多赢目标。Qinghai Province has been playing a role of mineral resources in the economic development, while also facing the problems of high energy intensity, irrational industrial structure, and the slow development of tertiary industry. This paper uses VAR and SVAR model, analyzes the relationship between the tertiary industry in Qinghai province and the energy intensity. The result shows that： in the short term, the development of tertiary industry can significantly reduce energy intensity; in the medium to long term, the role of reducing energy intensity tends smooth. Accordingly, we propose to vigorously develop the dominant industries of the tertiary industry, especially tourism industry. Those would be useful for developing the advantage of tourism resources in Qingbai Province, at the same time it can realize the win-win goal between adiusting industrial structure and reducing energy intensity.

关 键 词：青海省 能源强度 第三产业VAR模型SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F269.274.3[经济管理—国民经济]