变网格模式LMDZ对东亚夏季气候平均态的模拟能力评估  

Evaluation of summer climate simulations over east Asia by a variable resolution model LMDZ

作　　者：胡亚南[1,2] 郭慕萍[1] 李肇新[3,4] 张国宏[1] 李智才[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西省气候中心,太原030006 [2]中国农业科学院,北京100081 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]法国科研中心动力气象实验室

出　　处：《气象科学》2012年第5期482-491,共10页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局2009气候变化专项(CCSF-09-0);2009-2010年山西省气象局领军人才专项;(中-英-瑞)中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC/20100515;ACCC/003);国家"十一五"科技支撑课题(2007BAC03A02)

摘　　要：将可变网格大气环流模式LMDZ的模拟中心移动至中国地理中心附近(37°N,112.5°E),在东亚地区进行加密,使用其对应全球模式同步输出资料进行环流强迫,以观测海表温度SST和海冰SIC资料对下边界强迫,对1979—2008年各年5—9月对500 hPa高度场,850 hPa温度场和地面要素等进行了模拟,并利用同期的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和由中国气象台站资料生成的格点资料,评估该模式对东亚地区高空环流场、西太平洋副热带高压及地面温度、降水等的夏季气候平均态的模拟能力。结果表明:LMDZ可以较好的模拟平均环流场,其模拟结果能够反映实际的500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场的分布特征和趋势,但总体模拟值较观测值偏低;对副高强度的模拟能力偏弱、模拟的副高位置偏东,但准确的表现了副高随时间变化的移动特性;模式较好的再现了中国区域夏季地面气温和降水的空间分布特征;但从数值吻合度看,温度模拟主要呈区域性偏冷距平,在东南沿海地区偏低1～3℃,在西部青藏高原地区偏低3～4℃及以上,中部和东北大部基本无偏差;降水的模拟在中国西北地区与实际观测较为一致,其误差主要表现为在中国东南部沿海模拟的降水偏多;对7个子区域,模式对850 hPa温度场和地面日均气温的再现能力优于对500 hPa高度场的模拟,且子区域间模拟偏差结果相差大,其中华北区地面气温模拟偏差最小,西北区降水值模拟偏差最小。A variable resolution regional climate model LMDZ is used to simulate May-September climate during 1979—2008.The model was forced by the outputs of LMDZ-Global,observed sea ice and sea surface temperature data and its center of zoom was modified and set at 37 °N,112.5 °E.Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and gridded observation data in Chinese region promoted from original meteorological stations＇ data in China,the LMDZ regional climate model was evaluated in tems of its summer mean climate over east Asia.Results show that： the distribution characters of 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature are well simulated,however the values are a little lower than the actual;the simulated subtropical high intensity is weaker and its position tends to east.It can reproduce well the atmospheric circulation over east Asia.The main distribution of simulated surface air temperature and precipitation over China are basically reasonable.The simulated biases of surface air temperature show that it is equal with the actual in the central and north-east China,whereas colder than the observations by 1～3 ℃ in southeast coastal region and 3～4 ℃ or more in western China.The simulated and observed precipitation are consistent in most areas in northwest China,and its bias of larger rainfall is found mainly in simulated China＇s southeastern coastal area.Concerning the 7 sub-regions,the model reproductions of the 850 hPa temperature and surface air temperature are better than the simulation of 500 hPa geopotential height and precipitation.The biases between simulation and observation differ in each subarea.North and northwest China have the minimum deviation of surface air temperature and precipitation respectively.

关 键 词：LMDZ 区域气候模式 气候模拟 模式评估 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]