未来中长期全球公共卫生安全:发展趋势及其国际政治影响  

Future Medium & Long-term Global Public Health Security:Development Trends & Its International Political Influence

作　　者：程春华[1] 杨久华[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院 [2]交通运输部管理干部学院

出　　处：《社会科学》2012年第11期20-30,共11页Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部重大攻关项目"中国国际战略环境预测与国家应对战略研究"(项目批准号:09JZD0040-1)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：未来中长期全球公共卫生安全可能呈现以下几个发展趋势:一是未来人类健康及疾病控制压力将继续增大,因为全球化使传染性疾病大爆发威胁上升,非传染性疾病(慢性病与精神疾病)难以遏制,疾病控制与世界公共卫生体系比较脆弱;二是流感大爆发、艾滋病、生物武器和生物恐怖的潜在威胁使得未来全球公共卫生安全趋势不容乐观。其国际政治影响包括:传染疾病的全球流行最可能打乱并逆转全球化进程,艾滋病的蔓延对南部非洲国家将继续构成严峻挑战,气候变化对全球公共卫生安全的影响将更加突出。加强国际合作是维护全球公共卫生安全的有效途径。There may be several trends in the area of future medium ＆ long - term global public health security ： firstly, human health and disease control pressure will continue to increase, because globalization rises threat of outbreak infectious disease, difficult to control non - communicable diseases （ chronic ＆ mental illness）, systems of disease control and the world＇s public health are relatively fragile; secondly, such potential threats as pandemic influenza, AIDS, biological weapons and bioterrorism trend make the future of global public health security not optimistic. Its international political influence, including： the global epidemic of infectious disease is most likely to disrupt and reverse the process of globalization, the spread of AIDS in southern African countries will continue to pose a serious challenge, and the impact of climate change on global public health security will become more prominent. Strengthen international cooperation is an effective way of safeguarding global public health security.

关 键 词：全球公共卫生安全 非传统安全 国际政治影响 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]