基于系统动力学的三峡库区流域水污染控制模拟  

Water pollution control simulation of the Three-Gorge Reservoir based on the system dynamics

作　　者：秦翠红[1,2] 郭秀锐[1] 程水源[1] 王征[2] 陈媛[1] 陆瑾[3] 高继军[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院,北京100124 [2]交通运输部水运科学研究院,北京100088 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2012年第5期29-33,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07104-006)

摘　　要：为协调水环境保护与经济发展的关系,在充分考虑经济发展与水环境污染治理现状的基础上,构建了三峡库区流域水污染控制系统动力学模型,通过对决策变量的不同取值,设置了4种发展方案进行仿真模拟和分析。结果表明:方案1和2都保持了较高的经济发展速度,但都以牺牲环境为代价;方案3保护了环境,却减缓了经济发展速度;只有方案4在经济发展的同时兼顾环境保护,是实现三峡库区流域社会、经济和环境可持续发展的最佳模式。To probe into the mutual relation between the socio-economic development and water pollution in the Three-Gorge Reservoir, this paper intends to present a system dynamics model of water pollution control in the reservoir area starting from the point of view of better control the relation between economic development and water pollution control. The model we have worked out can be divided into 4 subsystems, that is, the population subsystem, the industrial subsystem, the agricultural subsystem and pollution subsystem. The results indicate that the SD model proves to be successful and operated well in a variety of ways, with the utmost relative errors being less than 5%. To meet the actual needs for simulation, we have developed the simulation model and simulation analysis in four kinds of developmental scenarios, such as continuation scenario, economic development scenario, water environment protection scenario as well as the coordination scenario. The simulation results indicate that under scenario A and scenario B, it is possible to keep high speed of economic development at the cost of water environment; however, under scenario C, the economic development might be suffered under the proper concern and protection of water environment. Nevertheless, it is only under scenario D, it would be made possible to create a balanced favorable condition to keep the fast development in national economy and well-protected environment. Thus, in regard to the water environment protection scenario, as compared with the existing continuation scenario and economic development scenario, it is necessary to decrease waste water emission by 60% and 64%, respectively, and at the same time, slow down the pace of economic development, so as to limit the industrial output value within 603.14 billion yuan by the year of 2020. Under scenario D, the increase of the industrial output value should be controlled to be within 738.34 billion yuan in 2020, which is 22% higher than under the water environment protection scenario, whereas the emiss

关 键 词：环境工程学 系统动力学 三峡库区流域 水污染控制系统 

分 类 号：X323[环境科学与工程—环境工程]