化工园区区域定量风险评价及其应用研究  

A quantitative chemical industry area risk assessment model

作　　者：马月鹏 李竹霞 倪凯 杨柳 

机构地区：[1]上海市安全生产科学研究所,上海200233

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2012年第5期239-242,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：上海市2010年度"科技创新行动计划"项目(10231203000)

摘　　要：讨论了化工园区域定量风险评价的基本程序和评价指标,提出了定量风险计算的个人风险和社会风险计算模型。利用SAFETI软件对碳一分公司进行定量风险计算,得出碳一分公司区域的个人风险等值线图和社会风险曲线图。依据计算结果分析碳一分公司化工园区域的风险现状。The present paper aims to introduce our work in developing the quantitative chemical industry zone risk assessment model. As is known, with the ever-increasing rate of chemical works accidents, such as fire, explosion and toxic diffusion, it has become more and more urgent to enhance the research on how to analyze such disastrous accidents and prevent them more effectively, particularly, close attention to the study of the hazards taking place in industrial zones. As a matter of fact, most risk evaluation methods concerning the safety distance between the industrial zones and the human residential areas. Such research and evaluation items have been remarkably valuable due to their high subjective factors. On the contrary, industrial area quantitative risk assessment （IAQRA） is generally regarded as an effective method for evaluating the risks of chemical industry parks. It is just for the purpose of such research of the IAQRA, this paper has introduced the procedures of IAQRA and its evaluation criteria along with the calculation model of personal and social insurance risks. To increase the reliability of the evaluation results, we have done investigations over all the accidental scenarios concerning the evaluation model and accumulate large amounts of related data from the actual process of the realistic disasters. Since the evaluation involves huge amounts of calculation in the IAQRA model, we have accomplished the whole work via computer-aided processing. In addition, we have also adopted SAFETI software developed by DNV for the risk assessment. With the help of SAFETI software, both the standards of the personal insurance situation and that of the social insurance in Tanyi company area have been established with the isopleth of personal insurance and the F-N diagram of social insurance project perfected. The standard of the personal insurance and social insurance are actually closely related to the geological environment, the current economical development level, to the land development condition as well

关 键 词：安全管理工程 区域定量风险评价 个人风险 社会风险 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]