“四万亿”投资的增长效应分析——“反事实”方法的一个应用  

The Growth Effect of the “Four Trillion” Investment:An Application of the “Counterfactual” Method

作　　者：卫梦星[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488

出　　处：《当代财经》2012年第11期16-25,共10页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国社会科学院重大课题"我国应对金融危机的政策效应分析及退出机制设计"(YZDA2010)

摘　　要：在"反事实"框架下,考虑利用宏观数据构建"反事实"的现实困难,提出了一种新的宏观政策效应评估方法,并应用该方法对2008年三季度后中国政府实施的"四万亿"投资的经济增长效应进行事后评价。研究发现"四万亿"投资对2009年实际GDP增长的贡献为0.93个百分点,但其作用在2010年后迅速反转。结果表明,"四万亿"投资确实为阻止中国经济在金融危机中陷入衰退起到了较大作用,但对2009年的"保八"目标来讲并非必须,其长期作用也不显著。This paper timate the effects of the put forwards a new method within the ＂counterfactual＂ framework to es- c policy when taking into account the existing difficulties of constructing ＂counter facts＂ by using macro data; and as an application, it gives an ex post estima- tion of the economic growth effect of the ＂four trillion＂ investment implemented by Chinese gov- ernment since the third quarter of 2008. The result of the study shows that the investment contributed to the real GDP growth by 0.93 percentage in 2009, while the effect reversed quickly in 2010. It al- so indicates that the ＂four trillion＂ investment has indeed played a considerable role in preventing China＇ s economy from slipping into recession during the global financial crisis, but it is not neces- sary to ensure the growth goal of eight percentage that once launched in 2009, which will not affect the economy significantly in the long run.

关 键 词：“反事实” “四万亿”投资 经济增长效应 事后评价 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]