美联储大额资产购买计划的有效性分析  

An Analysis of the Effectiveness of FED’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases

作　　者：严春晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《当代财经》2012年第11期55-66,共12页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：作为非常规货币政策的主要手段之一,大额资产购买计划旨在压低长期利率,维护金融市场稳定,刺激经济活动。基于2003年1月至2012年2月的月度数据构建的VAR模型,实证检验表明:(1)大额资产购买计划能够显著降低长期利率,但与普通国债购买措施相比,其作用并不显著;(2)大额资产购买计划能够有效提高通胀预期,缓解通缩,稳定物价水平,同时该措施对产出有一定的积极影响,但力度较弱,对于经济复苏的刺激作用有限;(3)长期利率对通胀缺口以及产出缺口变化的贡献率在大额资产购买计划实施后均出现大幅度上升,说明货币政策从金融市场传导至实体经济的环节更为通畅。As one of the major means of unconventional monetary policy, large-scale asset pur- chases are intended to lower the long-term interest rates, maintain the stability of the financial mar- kets and stimulate economic activities. Based on the VAR model with the monthly data from January 2003 to February 2012, this empirical test shows that large-scale asset purchases can significantly low- er long-term interest rates, but compared to purchase of common treasury bonds, its role is not signif- icant; large-scale asset purchases may raise the inflation expectation, ease the deflation pressure, and stabilize the price level. Meanwhile it can exert certain positive impact on output, but it is rather weak and its role to stimulate the economic recovery is also limited. The contribution of long-term interest rates to the changes of inflation gap and output gap has increased significantly after the large-scale asset purchases, which indicates that the monetary policy can run more smoothly from the financial markets to the real economy.

关 键 词：大额资产购买计划 货币政策有效性 非常规货币政策 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学]