审计意见决策的贝叶斯有序离散选择分析  

A Bayesian Ordinal Discrete Choice Analysis for Audit Opinion Decision

作　　者：鲜文铎[1] 谢赞春[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学,四川成都610000

出　　处：《贵州财经学院学报》2012年第6期99-104,共6页Journal of Guizhou College of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目<基于随机参数离散选择方法的财务困境预测研究>(10XJC630011)的阶段性成果(项目主持人:鲜文铎)

摘　　要：审计师通过审计意见决策,为会计信息的可信度提供鉴证意见,从而缓解委托人与代理人之间的信息不对称状况、降低代理成本。审计师的意见决策是一个有序离散选择过程。构建一个贝叶斯有序Mixed Logit审计意见决策模型,应用中国上市公司的实例数据,通过Gibbs抽样及MCMC模拟对参数进行贝叶斯估计,得到参数的后验统计量及置信区间,可对影响审计意见决策的各因素的作用效应进行系统分析。The auditor provides attestation opinion for credibility of accounting information through audit opinion decisiong which alleviating the information asymmetry between investors and management of company and the agent cost. The auditor＇ s opinion decision is an ordinal discrete choice process. The paper develops a Bayesian ordinal mixed logit model for audit opinion decision. By using Chinese listed companies data and the Bayesian computing methods such as Gibbs sampling and MCMC simulationg the model parameters are estimated and the posterior statistics and confidence intervals are obtained. Finally the factors affecting audit opinion decision and their effects are analyzed.

关 键 词：贝叶斯 有序离散选择 MIXED LOGIT模型 审计意见 

分 类 号：F239.1[经济管理—会计学]