Risk Assessment of Diary Cattle Brucellosis Based on Systematic Multilevel Grey Relation Entropy Method  

基于系统多层次灰色关联熵的奶牛布鲁菌病风险评估(英文)

作　　者：孙向东[1] 江慎铭[2] 刘拥军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东青岛266032 [2]南昌航空大学,江西南昌330063

出　　处：《Agricultural Science & Technology》2012年第10期2169-2174,2225,共7页农业科学与技术（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by Special Research Fund for Public Sector(Agriculture)(200903055)~~

摘　　要：[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucellosis risk level in different regions.[Method] From 4 dimensions of feeding and importing,breeding,housing and polyculture situation,an evaluation index system was set up,and diary cattle brucellosis risk survey was conducted in 3 typical regions.Finally,systematic multilevel grey relation entropy method was applied to perform data analysis.[Result] The strong-to-weak sequence of Level 1 impact factor of diary cattle brucellosis was as follows：feeding and importinghousingpolyculture situationbreeding;the sequence of Level 2 impact factor was U32〉U12〉U11〉U31〉U21〉U42〉U43〉U23〉U22〉U41;the risk level sequence of 3 typical regions was Province A（County A1,A2,A3）Province B（County B1,B2,B3）Province C（County C1,C2,C3）.[Conclusion] According to the weight of Level 1 index strata,administrative departments at all levels and dairy cattle farmers should lay emphasis on the aspects of feeding,importing and housing;viewed from the perspective of Level 2 index strata,dairy cattle farmers should value the siting of cattle field,the brucellosis surveillance before importing and milking modes most.According to the diary cattle brucellosis risk level of 3 typical regions,if administrative departments at all levels strengthen peoples＇ awareness of their personal health and increase investment in this area,with new healthy cultured atmosphere built,the risk level of diary cattle brucellosis will surly decline.[目的]探究影响奶牛布病风险评估的主要因素及其影响强弱顺序,为合理评估不同地区的奶牛布病风险水平提供理论依据。[方法]从饲养与调入、繁育、饲养环境、混养情况四个维度,设定了评价指标体系,选取了3个有代表性的地区进行了奶牛布病风险调查,应用系统多层次灰色关联熵分析方法进行数据分析。[结果]一级影响因子对奶牛布病风险影响大小的顺序为:饲养与调入>饲养环境>混养情况>繁育;二级影响因子对奶牛布病风险影响大小的顺序为:U32>U12>U11>U31>U21>U42>U43>U23>U22>U41;3个有代表性的地区奶牛布病风险水平为:A省份(A1县、A2县、A3县)>B省份(B1县、B2县、B3县)>C省份(C1县、C2县、C3县)。[结论]根据一级指标层的权重,各级政府主管部门与奶牛养殖户应首先注重饲养与调入和饲养环境这两方面;而从二级指标层的加权权重来看,奶牛养殖户应首先重视奶牛场的选址,奶牛调入前的布病检测,挤奶方式等;根据3个有代表性的地区奶牛布病风险水平来看,各地政府主管部门只要加大宣传力度和投资力度,在当地形成奶牛养殖新风气,奶牛布病风险水平一定可以降低。

关 键 词：Systematic multilevel grey relation entropy method Diary cattle brucellosis Risk assessment 

分 类 号：S858.23[农业科学—临床兽医学]