气候变化和人类活动对黑河上中游径流量变化的贡献率  

Contribution rates of climate change and human activity on the runoff in upper and middle reaches of Heihe River basin

作　　者：何旭强[1] 张勃[1] 孙力炜[1] 靳生理[1] 赵一飞[1] 安美玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2012年第11期2884-2890,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961038);生态经济学省级重点学科项目(5001-021);西北师范大学知识与科技创新工程项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-66)资助

摘　　要：利用1960—2008年气象和水文资料,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、累积距平法、年累积量法、累积量斜率变化率法,分析了黑河上中游径流量和气候变化特征及趋势,并计算了气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:黑河上游年径流量、年降水量和年蒸发量呈上升趋势,且年径流量和年蒸发量变化显著;中游径流量与蒸发量为下降趋势,降水量为上升趋势,但变化趋势都不是那么明显。上游和中游径流量变化的突变年份分别为1979年和1984年。以径流突变年份分割时间序列为上游(1960—1979、1980—2008)和中游(1960—1984、1985—2008),得到累积径流量、累积降水量及累积蒸发量与年份线性关系式。上游以气候变化为主,人类活动的影响较小,二者对径流量增大的贡献率分别为59.71%和40.29%;中游气候变化影响较小,以人类活动为主导,二者对径流量减小的贡献率分别为25.23%和74.77%。研究结果对黑河流域未来水资源的开发利用有一定的指导意义。Based on the 1960-2008 meteorological and hydrological data in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River basin,and by the methods of linear regression,nonparametric Mann-Kendall test,accumulative anomaly,annual accumulation,and change rate of accumulation slope,this paper analyzed the variations and trends of the runoff and climate in this region,and calculated the contribution rates of climate change and human activity on the runoff.In the upper reaches of Heihe River basin,the annual runoff,precipitation,and evaporation presented an overall increasing trend,with a significant increase of the annual runoff and evaporation.In the midstream,the annual runoff and evaporation exhibited a decreasing trend while the annual precipitation was in adverse,but the trends were not obvious.The abrupt change year of the runoff in the upper and middle reaches was 1979 and 1984,respectively.According to the abrupt change year of runoff,the time series were divided into upstream（1960-1979 and 1980-2008） and midstream（1960-1984 and 1985-2008）,and the linear equations of the accumulated runoff,accumulative precipitation,and accumulative evaporation and the time series were obtained.In the upstream,climate change played dominant role,human activity had lesser effects,and their contribution rates to the increase of runoff were 59.71% and 40.29%,respectively.In the midstream,the effects of climate change on runoff were lesser,while human activity played dominant role,with their contribution rates to the decrease of runoff being 25.23% and 74.77%,respectively.This study could provide a guide for the future water resources development and utilization in Heihe River basin.

关 键 词：径流量 降水量 蒸发量 人类活动 贡献率 黑河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]