中国与大国关系影响因素探析——基于对1960-2009年数据的统计分析  

An Analysis of the Factors Affecting China's Relations with the Other Major Powers

作　　者：漆海霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际问题研究所

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2012年第5期61-78,2-3,共18页Chinese Journal of European Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国国际战略环境预测与国家应对战略研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：为了研究中国与各大国外交关系的变化究竟受哪些因素的影响,本文分别对国际格局、权力转移、核武器、经济相互依赖以及双边关系间的相互影响等因素进行了分析。根据1960年至2009年的数据,本文建立了回归模型,并通过了检验。统计显示,1960-1989年期间的中国与大国关系受到两国GDP差距、双边贸易、核武器、意识形态这四个因素的影响。1990-2000年期间的中国与大国关系受到两国GDP差距和意识形态的影响,而不受双边贸易与核武器情况的影响。2001-2009年期间的中国与大国关系受到两国GDP差距和双边贸易的影响,而不受意识形态的影响。在未来几年,中国外交将面临更多的压力和挑战。In order to make clear what are the true reasons affecting China's relations with the other major powers in the world,this paper makes an analysis of the factors such as the international pattern,transfer of power,nuclear weapons,economic interdependence,as well as ideology.Based on the data from 1960 to 2009,this paper has established a regression model.Statistics show that relations between China and the other major powers from 1960 to 1989 had been greatly influenced by factors including the GDP gap,bilateral trade,nuclear weapons and ideology.However,the period 1990-2000 witnessed a lessening effect of bilateral trade and nuclear weapons.During 2001-2009,the GDP gap and bilateral trade relations between two countries played a critical role in their relations.In sum,China's foreign policy will face more pressures and challenges in the future.

关 键 词：国际格局 权力转移 核武器 相互依赖 中外关系 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学]