敏感设备电压暂降失效事件不确定性的最大混合熵评估  

Uncertainty Assessment on Failure Accident of Voltage-Sensitive Equipment Due to Voltage Sag by Maximum Hybrid Entropy

作　　者：汪颖[1] 肖先勇[2] 杨达[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,四川省成都市610065 [2]智能电网四川省重点实验室(四川大学),四川省成都市610065

出　　处：《电网技术》2012年第11期159-164,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50877049);四川省应用基础研究项目(2008JY0043-2);四川省科技支撑计划资助项目(2010GZ0256)~~

摘　　要：敏感设备电压暂降失效事件是混合不确定事件,对其评估需考虑混合不确定性。以混合熵作为评价测度,建立敏感设备电压暂降失效事件不确定性的最大混合熵评估模型,并用以逆积法为基础的多阶段改进近似规划法进行模型求解。在评估过程中,将混合不确定性分解为随机性、模糊性和两者的交叉不确定性,并用随机商、模糊熵和交叉熵进行量化。以计算机(personal computer,PC)为例,考虑到PC机在电压暂降发生前可能处于全速、空载和正常等运行状态,电压暂降发生后可能出现完全死机、运算出错和"假死"等不同严重程度的失效状态,对实测样本进行评估,并与概率法、模糊法比较,结果证明,该方法所得结果客观、可行,克服了现有方法过估计或欠估计等不足,结果更符合实际。The failure accident of voltage-sensitive equipments due to voltage sag is a hybrid uncertainty accident. Taking hybrid entropy as assessment measure a maximum hybrid entropy-based uncertainty assessment model for failure accident of voltage-sensitive equipments due to voltage sag is established and solved by multi-stage improved approximate programming.During the assessment the hybrid uncertainty is decomposed to stochastic uncertainty,fuzzy uncertainty and the crossed certainty of the both,and these uncertainties are quantized by stochastic entropy,fuzzy entropy and crossed entropy.Taking personal computer（PC） as the case and considering possible operation conditions of PC before the occurrence of voltage sag,namely full speed running,no-load and normal operation,after the occurrence of voltage sag following failure states in different severities such as PC system halt,calculation error and false system halt may occur. The measured samples are assessed and the assessment results are compared with those assessed by probabilistic assessment and fuzzy assessment.Comparison results show that the proposed method,which remedies the defects of over-or under-estimation in existing methods,is feasible and objective, and its assessment results more confirm to practice.

关 键 词：电压暂降 敏感设备 失效事件 混合不确定性 最大混合熵 改进近似规划 

分 类 号：TP317[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]