广东省对外贸易与国际物流关系的实证研究  

Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Guangdong Foreign Trade and International Logistics

作　　者：高秀丽[1] 孟飞荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学经济管理学院,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2012年第21期86-90,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：根据广东省1978～2010年进出口贸易额、港口吞吐量和货物运输量年度时间序列数据,运用协整理论和VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法,分析广东省对外贸易与国际物流之间的关系。研究结果表明,广东省对外贸易与国际物流之间存在长期均衡的协整关系;国际物流对对外贸易的影响较为显著,而对外贸易对国际物流的影响不显著。Based on the annual data of port throughput, traffic and import ＆ export from 1978 to 2010, the paper analyzes the relationship between Guangdong foreign trade and international logistics by means of co - integration theory, VAR mod- el, impulse response function, variance decomposition and Granger causality. The results show that there exists a long - term co - integration relationship between Guangdong foreign trade and international logistics. The development of interna- tional logistics can significantly improve the level of foreign trade, whereas the stimulating effect of foreign trade on interna- tional logistics is not significant.

关 键 词：国际物流 对外贸易 VAR模型 协整模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F259.27F752.8