水电站水库群多目标联合调度风险评价决策研究  

A Study of Risk Assessment and Decision-making for Hydropower Reservoirs' Multi-objective Joint Operation

作　　者：李克飞[1] 纪昌明[1] 张验科[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学可再生能源学院,北京102206

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2012年第10期120-122,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07423-001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179069);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(10QX43)

摘　　要：水电站水库群多目标联合调度涉及不确定性因素众多,寻求风险可接受水平下的最佳调度方案存在诸多困难。一方面对梯级水电站水库群联合调度过程中产生的各类风险进行综合分析,并在此基础上构建联合调度风险评价指标体系及多目标风险决策模型,另一方面基于熵权法确定权重的思想确定多个风险评价指标的权重,并采用逼近于理想解(TOPSIS)的方法对模型的非劣解集方案进行优选排序,以获得最佳调度方案。溪洛渡-三峡梯级水库群联合调度的实例应用结果表明,所建模型与方法能兼顾各个调度部门的效益与风险,并为管理人员的调度决策提供一定的技术支撑。The hydropower reservoirs multi-objective operation involves many uncertain factors,and there are many difficulties in seeking the best scheduling schemes at the acceptable risk level.In this paper,based on a comprehensive analysis of risk factors in process of joint operation,the risk evaluation index system of joint operation and the multi-objective risk decision-making model are established,The model is applied to the joint operation of Xiluodu-Three Gorges cascade hydropower stations.The results show that the model and method can the benefits and risks of various scheduling departments and provide some technical support for making the joint operation scheme of the management.

关 键 词：水电站水库群 多目标联合调度 熵权法 TOPSIS 风险评价 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]