蔬菜全产业链价格传递机制研究  

The Price Transmission Mechanism of the Whole Vegetable Industrial Chain

作　　者：李桂芹[1] 王丽丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济管理学院,南京210016 [2]农业部规划设计研究院,北京100125

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2012年第11期30-36,110-111,共7页Issues in Agricultural Economy

摘　　要：本文利用2005年1月至2011年12月的蔬菜价格月度数据测算了蔬菜生产与批发、生产与零售、批发与零售价格之间的同期相关系数,认为蔬菜全产业链条价格之间有超越"线性"的影响关系,呈现出"相互影响"的特点,蔬菜全产业链条价格之间的传递呈现出明显的"非均衡性"。与零售价格相比,蔬菜批发价格的上涨更能带动生产价格的提高。因此,要实现蔬菜全产业链价格的科学传递和合理分配,必须提高菜农组织化水平,发展蔬菜产地批发市场,优化蔬菜零售终端。According to the vegetable monthly price data from January 2005 to December 2011,the contemporary correlation coefficient of vegetable production and wholesale price,production and detail price,wholesale and detail price separately are 0.662,0.681 and 0.786.Beyond 'linear' relationship,Vegetable whole industrial price appear 'mutual influence' characteristics.To one standard deviation impulse of vegetable production and wholesale price,the maximum cumulative response coefficient of detail price in twelve months separately is 11.78 and 22.52.To one standard deviation impulse of vegetable detail price,the maximum cumulative response coefficient of production and wholesale price in twelve months separately is 4.87 and 0.26.The transfer of vegetable whole industrial price appears unbalanced.In 12 months,the maximum cumulative response coefficient of vegetable production price to wholesale and detail price one standard impulse separately is 12.44 and 4.87.The maximum explanatory power of vegetable wholesale and detail price to production price predict error separately is 23% and 10.2%,compared to detail price,the improve of vegetable wholesale price have more driven to increase production price.Therefore,in order to achieve the scientific transfer and rational allocation,the measures should be measured to raise the farmer organization level,develop vegetable planting wholesale market,optimize vegetable detail terminal.

关 键 词：产业链 价格传递 相互影响 VAR模型 蔬菜 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]