节能减排与经济增长双目标下的R&D补贴政策选择——基于动态可计算一般均衡的情景分析  

The Choice of R&D Subsidy Policies under Goals of Energy Saving,Emission Reduction and Economic Growth——A Scenario Analysis Based on DCGE Model

作　　者：魏玮[1] 何旭波[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2012年第6期70-80,124-125,共11页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文使用动态可计算一般均衡技术,模拟不同R&D补贴政策情景下经济增长、能源消费及二氧化碳排放等变量的变化情况,结果发现:知识替代弹性的增加会加快上述变量的增长率,在较高的替代弹性下,提高补贴率水平会对上述变量造成相反的影响;在适度的替代弹性下,上述变量的增长率随补贴率水平的增加而增加;较高的补贴率水平会导致过度补贴,即补贴率增加导致GDP和消费减少;补贴政策实施的越早,越能促进节能减排和经济增长。This paper forecasts the main economic-energy-environmental variables such as economic growth,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in China with dynamic computable general equilibrium model.Based on these experiment scenarios designed,we simulate the way the above variables change under different subsidy policies.The results show that the increase of elasticity of knowledge substitution will accelerate the growth rates of all the above variables while the effect of the subsidy policies depends on the elasticity of substitution and subsidies rates level will cause opposite effect with increasing elasticity of substitution,that growth rates of energy consumption,carbon emission,GDP and consumption will increase with the level of subsidies rates with the moderate elasticity of substitution,that the consumption will be spilled over under higher subsidies rates and GDP growth rate will decline,and that subsidy policies effects will be better in promoting economic growth,energy saving and emission reduction if policies implemented earlier under the same level of subsidies rate.

关 键 词：R&D补贴 节能减排 经济增长 动态可计算一般均衡 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F205F224