“十二五”期间保障房建设的经济效应  

Economic effect of guarantee-houses construction during the Twelfth-Five Year Plan

作　　者：唐文进[1] 宋朝杰[1] 陈畅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2012年第11期2-9,共8页Urban Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(08AJL006)

摘　　要：在政府不断加大对房地产行业宏观调控力度的背景下,大规模保障房建设的经济效应越发值得关注。通过对国外已广泛应用的IMPLAN系统进行有效的改良及运用,分析了保障房建设对我国各产业直接、间接的影响。分析结果表明:"十二五"期间,4.7万亿的保障房建设投资将带动我国所有产业的产出增加约9.12万亿元,就业增加约4110.43万人次,附加值增加约3.99万亿元,且不同产业所受的各类影响差别很大。因此,充分发挥保障房建设的拉动效应,对于防范房地产调控引发整体经济硬着陆,确保宏观经济的持续、健康发展有着重大意义。In the context of more frequent macro - con- trol policies applied to real estate industry by central government, the stimulating effect of large - scale guarantee - houses construction is worthy of special concern. Through effectively improving IMPLAN model applied widely in the foreign countries, this essay quantifies the direct, indirect, induced and en- tire influence of large - scale guarantee - houses construction. The analytic results indicate that： investing over 4. 7 trillion RMB in guarantee - houses construction during the twelfth five - year plan period will drive the tremendous growth of approximately 9.12 trillion RMB of all industries＇ output in China, as well as, increase employment and add value, about 41. 1043 million persontime and 3.98 trillion RMB respectively; the different influences on different industries vary greatly. There- fore, to avoid the risk of China＇ s economic hard landing and maintain a sustained, rapid and sound development of national economy, it is highly significant to ensure that the stimulating effect of large - scale guarantee - houses construction is given full play.

关 键 词：保障房建设 拉动效应 IMPLAN系统 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]