面向精益化安全校核的精细化母线负荷预测  

Elaborate bus load forecasting about lean grid security check

作　　者：蔡剑彪[1] 罗滇生[1] 贺辉[2] 程义明[1] 廖峰[1] 郭精人[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙410082 [2]湖南省电力公司,长沙410007

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2012年第32期218-223,243,共7页Computer Engineering and Applications

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金委员会与衡阳市政府自然科学联合基金资助(No.11JJ8003)

摘　　要：为了提高电网安全校核的精益化管理水平,从基础性的母线负荷预测精细化研究入手。阐述了安全校核工作流程和精细化母线负荷预测流程。以精细化的母线分类为基础,采用差分演化模拟退火模型,克服了传统聚类模型易陷入局部收敛的缺点。以切合安全校核的简便化方法规避坏数据。通过地区负荷预测修正法为主的精细化修正,减小初次预测的粗糙度,采用一种自适应性概率权重组合预测模型,改善了预测精度不稳定的状况。实验结果表明,该流程的预测水平满足安全校核的要求。In order to improve the elaborate management level of grid security check, it requires to study fundamen- tal bus load forecasting. This text mainly states the overall work process of security check, and the process of elabo- rate bus load forecasting. It takes elaborate bus classification as basis, employs differential evolution simulated an- nealing model, overcomes the shortcoming that traditional clustering model often turns into local convergence. Meanwhile, it avoids abnormal data with simple safe check methods. And with elaborate correction based on area load forecasting correction method, it reduces the roughness of the first forecasting, and adopts a kind of adaptive probability weight combination forecast model, which greatly improves the accuracy of forecasting. Many experi- mental results show that the forecasting level of this process can finally meet the requirements of security check.

关 键 词：母线负荷预测 精细化 安全校核 母线分类 地区负荷预测修正法 概率组合预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]