贺州市近54年降水变化特征分析  

Variation Characteristics Analysis of the Precipitation in Hezhou City in Recent 54 Years

作　　者：孙小龙 廖铭超 

机构地区：[1]广西贺州市气象局,广西贺州542800

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第32期15804-15804,15863,共2页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：通过线性回归、曲线拟合及小波变换,对1957～2010年贺州市的降水时间序列进行分析,揭示了降水变化趋势及周期变化规律。结果表明,近54年来贺州市降水呈波动性变化,降水年内变化、年际变化均很明显,变化幅度较大,近54年的年降雨量呈增加趋势,降水倾向率为7.266 mm/10a;贺州市年降水存在2个明显的全域性变化周期,分别是16～18年的年代际尺度周期性变化和8～9年的年际尺度周期性变化,其中17年左右的周期震荡最强。Based on the time series precipitation data from 1957 to 2010 in Hezhou,linear regression,curve fitting and wavelet transform were used to analyze the variation trend and periodic law of precipitation.In recent 54 years,the precipitation in Hezhou changed in volatility.The change within the year and inter year was obvious,and its amplitude was large.The precipitation increased in recent 54 years,and its trend rate was 7.266 mm/10a.There were two significant periodic variations of the precipitation.One was the inter-decadal periodic variation about 16-18 a,the other was the inter-annual periodic variation about 8-9 a.And the periodic shock of about 17 a was the strongest.

关 键 词：贺州 降水 变化特征 小波分析 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]