中国新型农村社会养老保险制度优化与长期均衡发展研究——基于待遇调整的视角  

Research on China's New Rural Social Old-aged Insurance System Optimization and Long-term Equilibrium:From the Perspective of “Benefit Adjustment”

作　　者：王鹏[1] 米红[1] 张田田[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2012年第11期32-38,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目<劳动保障政策仿真模型平台与决策支持系统专业模型开发>(2012BAK22B02);美国福特基金会委托项目<新型农村社会养老制度评估研究>(1115-1379);教育部社科重大课题攻关项目<社会养老服务体系建设研究>(12JZD035);国家社会科学基金重点项目<新型农村社会养老制度研究>(09AZD031)和<加快覆盖城乡居民的社会保障制度体系研究>(07ASH009)

摘　　要：自2009年开始试点的新型农村社会养老保险制度已在年内实现制度全覆盖以来,如何更有效发挥制度的养老作用和进一步与城镇相关制度衔接等制度优化以及长期均衡发展问题亟待研究。鉴此,基于10县万份问卷相关问题调查,在统计分析的基础上,依据统筹城乡和有限财政责任理论,结合社会保障精算与财政支付能力的中长期政策仿真分析,创新地凝练出基于待遇调整视角的制度优化模式,研究结果表明:从"纯福利型"模式到"具有激励适度普惠型"模式,是新农保制度优化的路径选择。First issued experimentally in 2009, China＇s New Rural Social Old--aged Insurance System will achieve its full coverage by the end of 2012. The system＇s utilization and long-- term equilibrium issues, such as its further function in endowment improvement and its linkage with urban pension system, are to be studied. Through the survey and assessment of nearly 10,000 questionnaires in 10 pilot counties in China＇s New Rural Social Old--aged Insurance （RSOI） System, this paper studies RSOI System＇s developing thread, after future system＇s complete coverage. This paper refers to the balancing urban and rural development theory and limited financial responsibility theory, and combines social security actuarial calculation with the long--term simulation calculation method of financial ability of payment. Based on the system optimization mode from the perspective of ＂ Benefit Adjustment＂, the study indicates that path selection to optimize the system is to alter the pure--welfare--type RSOI mode to the incentive rural old-- aged insurance mode.

关 键 词：新农保 待遇调整 精算 仿真 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]