北京市水资源与水量平衡研究  

Research on water resources and water balance in Beijing

作　　者：张士锋[1,2] 孟秀敬[1,3] 廖强[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理研究》2012年第11期1991-1997,共7页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171032);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB955304)

摘　　要：以降雨-径流-蒸散发平衡和水资源供需平衡模式为基础进行研究,得到以下结论:北京市2001～2009年系列的水资源量与多年平均系列相比,水资源产量减少了约40.1%,减少的原因既有气候因素,也有人类活动导致土地覆被变化的原因,其中气候因素占30.1%,下垫面变化导致产流减少的比重为69.9%;同时由于人口的增长,北京市人均水资源占有量从270m3下降到114m3。在北京市水平衡分析中,采用不同下垫面蒸散发模式,计算得到2001～2009年北京市蒸散发为494mm,河川径流量为46mm,入境水量为4.34亿m3,出境水量为8.03亿m3,超采地下水、水库净补给以及外流域引水量为6.19亿m3。在不考虑河道内生态需水条件下,北京市的现状缺水量为4.73～5.86亿m3。到2014年南水北调中线水到达北京以后,北京将可以在75%来水年份下保障10～15年的水资源的基本供需平衡。但是如果遭遇95%来水频率的特枯年份,北京仍然将会面临较为严重的水资源短缺问题。According to the rainfall-runoff-evapotranspiration and the balance model of water resources supply and demand, some results are obtained as follows. （1） The annual mean amount of water resources in Beijing declined from 37.39 ×10^8 m3 to 22.33 × 10^8 m3 in 2009, a decrease of about 40.1%, which is due to climate factors （contribution rate of 30. 1%） and land cover changesd induced by human activities （69. 9%）. （2） In recent years, the precipitation in Beijing was 485.5 ram. The evapotranspiration （during the period 2001-2009） calculated by models based on different underlying surface types was 494 mm. The amount of runoff in rivers was 46 ram. The inflow was 4.34 × 10^8 m3 and the outflow was 8. 03 × 10^8 m3. The volume of groundwater overdraft, net reservoir supplies and intake water resources were totally 6.19×10^8 m3. （3） Without regard to the eco-water demand, the present water shortage in Beijing reaches 4.73 - 5.85 million m3. By 2014, with the water of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project arriving in Beijing, the water supply and demand balance will be ensured for 10-15 years on the condition of 75% inflowing water frequency. But if Beijing encounters 95% inflowing water frequency of extremely dry years, it will still face serious water shortages.

关 键 词：北京市 蒸散发 水量平衡 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]