中国经济增长中的价格低估与“隐性”虚增问题研究  

The Reality of Chinese Growth and China Miracle

作　　者：张勇[1] 古明明[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院 [2]清华大学人文社会科学学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2012年第11期110-118,共9页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:71003058)的研究成果;"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"(项目编号:2010221054)的资助

摘　　要：很多研究试图解释中国统计数据的虚增问题,但是研究结果与官方数据差异不大,因此认为中国经济的高速增长是符合实际的。本文认为,中国数据虚增的问题在于价格水平被低估。假定中国1997年来税制无根本性变动,本文通过研究税收变化与物价关系发现中国物价被低估,这说明中国真实产出被高估。物价高涨造成了财政收入与名义产出一致这一假象以及真实实际收入提高缓慢这一现实,因为财政收入与名义产出相关,而真实收入与实际产出相关。这点说明中国对产出的虚增已经从传统上直接虚报产出演变为出于"价格维稳"目的、通过低估价格而虚增实际产出,从而导致官方真实产出数据与现实脱节。Many researches try to explain the difference between the rapid growth and slowly increasing living level of China. Most papers hold that there exists a certain degree of exaggeration of China＇s growth. However, the conclusions of most classical researches do not have too much difference with governmental data and could not explain the abnormal relationship between the growth of China and the energy consumption , revenue change and living level. This paper assumes that the tax system of China had been relatively fixed since 1997 and thus the tax revenue is related with real nominal output. And the real price index is calculated. The authors find that the price level of China has been underestimated at least one time since 1997 and the real growth rate has been only about 4.8% during the past 14 years. The growth rate since 2003 had been only about 8%. This brings the difference between the feeling of most people and the governmental growth data. This paper shows that the growth exaggeration mode has changed from traditional direct exaggeration by local government to indirect exaggeration through the underestimation of price level for the aim of ＂economic stabilization＂.

关 键 词：虚增产出 价格维稳 税收收入 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F812.42F726F224