基于主体建模的废物交换模型与仿真分析  

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Waste Exchanging System

作　　者：李清慧[1] 石磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2012年第11期1297-1303,共7页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071352);环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室专项基金课题(12Y01ESPCT);国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项(2010467059)

摘　　要：作为产业共生中一种重要的关系,废物交换不仅能解决废物处置的难题,还可以降低原料供给的成本与风险.企业进行废物交换的动力主要来源于经济利益的驱动.从交换的市场机制出发,运用基于主体建模的方法构建了废物交换的模型框架,并且基于Swarm平台进行了仿真分析.结果表明:系统的废物交换价格指数在仿真开始后10个周期内迅速降至4左右,并在之后的周期内缓慢下降;系统中单个废物的价格波动较大,但这种波动并未反映到整体的价格指数中;系统中的废物交换量和参与交换的企业数量均呈上升的趋势,但废物交换量的增长呈先慢后快的态势,在第200个周期时达到25×104t.而参与交换企业数量的增长呈先快后慢态势并逐渐稳定在100家左右.示范企业的选取对于系统的废物交换量有一定的影响,选取规模较大的企业作为示范企业比随机选取更能促进系统中的废物交换,在第200个周期时比随机选择下的交换量高出约50%.Waste exchange is one of the most important relationships in Industrial Symbiosis, not only because it can solve the problem of waste treatment, but also because it can reduce the costs and risks of raw material supply. Since economic interest is the main driver of inter-firm waste exchange, a framework waste exchange model was built up in this paper using ABM, and the evolutions of exchange prices and quantities were simulated using the Swarm platform. The results show that： 1 ） the exchange price index decreased rapidly over the first 10 periods, and slowly afterwards ; 2） the overall exchange price was relatively stable despite the fluctuation of single waste ; 3 ） both the exchange quantity and the number of firms engaged in this process increased over the simulation time, reaching 250,000 ton and 100 firms by the 200th period; 4） the choice of pillar firms will influence the exchange quantity of the system; choosing larger firms as pillars is a more favorable policy. In our case, the strategy of choosing larger firms generated 50% more quantity than the random strategy did.

关 键 词：废物交换 产业生态系统 产业共生 主体建模 仿真 

分 类 号：X74[环境科学与工程—环境工程]