基于群体决策的装备重要性多想定空间分析  

Exploratory analysis on key equipment under multi-scenarios based on group decision

作　　者：赵峰[1,2] 王书宁[1] 杨克巍[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学自动化系,北京100084 [2]海军装备研究院,北京100161 [3]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2012年第11期2264-2269,共6页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(70901074);武器装备预研基金资助课题

摘　　要：为提高对装备论证不确定性因素的定量分析能力,依据未来可能承担任务、应具备能力、拟发展装备间内在逻辑关系,提出了基于群体决策的装备重要性多想定空间分析方法。实例应用表明:对比多个典型想定牵引发展的装备体系能兼顾其未来应用的多种可能,有助于解决应急调整装备建设方案带来的后续难题;突出了体系作战能力在装备需求论证中的纽带作用;对可能受主观因素影响的模型权重、输入变量等进行探索性分析,提高了重点装备选择的科学可信性。In order to face the increasing uncertainties in the development process of the armament, the paper gives the method of exploratory analysis on key equipment under multi-scenarios based on the logical relationship between the missions, capabilities and equipments. The case study indicates that the weapon system of systems based on multi-scenarios can face many kinds of uncertainties and can help us avoiding the problems coming from the development process of the armament which is forced to be changed when meeting emergen cies. The method sticks out the bridge linking of capabilities in the equipment requirement procedure. Explora- tory analysis on the variables which may be influenced by subjective experience can increase the credibility of the choice of key equipment.

关 键 词：体系工程 群体决策 探索性分析 装备论证 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]