基于CA-Markov模型的海湾土地利用动态预测  

Dynamic Prediction for Gulf Land Use Based on CA-Markov Model

作　　者：吴季秋[1] 俞花美[2] 肖明[3] 葛成军[1] 唐文浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]热带作物种质资源保护与开发利用教育部重点实验室,海南大学环境与植物保护学院,海南海口570228 [2]海南大学经济与管理学院,海南海口570228 [3]中国科学院生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《环境工程技术学报》2012年第6期531-539,共9页Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology

基　　金：海南省教育厅研究生创新科研课题(Hys2011-13);海南省国土环境资源厅2009重点项目;海南大学211工程建设项目;海南大学环境与植物保护学院研究生创新平台

摘　　要：以海南八门湾为例,利用GIS分析手段,基于Markov预测结果分析,从土地利用适宜性原则与生态保护的角度出发,提出调整后的土地利用约束条件,运用CA-Markov模型,对研究区域2020年土地利用变化趋势进行了预测和模拟。结果表明,防风林、天然林和红树林等天然植被和功能性植被的面积将有所增加;养殖水面、果园和水田等农业生产性用地将有所减少。表明按照可持续发展原则对土地利用进行控制,能够在不影响当前经济发展的前提下,实现社会经济与生态环境协调发展的目标。Taking Bamen bay as the research area, adjustive land use constraint conditions were proposed by using GIS analysis methods, based on the results forecasted by Markov model and from the perspective of land use suitability principle and ecological protection. The CA-Markov model was used to forecast and simulate the land use change tendency of until 2020. The results showed that the land covered by natural vegetation and functional vegetation such as shelterbelt, natural forest and mangrove would increase. On the contrary, the agricultural productive land such as aquaculture bases, orchards and paddy fields would decline. It was indicated that under the sustainable development principles of land use, it would be possible to achieve the goal of coordinated development of society and eco-environment, without any major influence on economic development.

关 键 词：CA-Markov模型 土地利用 生态环境 土地利用适宜性原则 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]