旅游业发展与城市经济增长的实证研究——以黄山市为例  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Chinese Tourism Development and Economic Growth:A Case Study of Huangshan City

作　　者：霍守花[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241003

出　　处：《石家庄学院学报》2012年第6期72-76,共5页Journal of Shijiazhuang University

摘　　要：运用计量经济学理论中的ADF检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验研究了黄山市旅游业发展水平与城市经济增长之间的动态关系,并建立向量误差修正模型.结果表明:黄山市经济增长和旅游业发展存在长期均衡关系,黄山市国内旅游收入、入境旅游收入每增长1个百分点,分别带动黄山市GDP增长约0.45和0.056个百分点;与此同时,黄山市经济增长与国内旅游收入、国际旅游收入之间存在单向Granger因果关系.在此基础上,提出黄山市应加大旅游投入力度,制定旅游与经济发展的长期政策等建议.This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between tourism development and economic growth of Huangshan City,based on ADF test,co-integration test and Granger causality test. A vector error correction model is established to study the long-term stable relationship. The results indicate that there are a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and development of tourism industry. With domestic tourism increased by l%,the growth of GDP increases about 0.45%;with inbound tourism increased by 1%, the growth of GDP increases 0.056%. The one-way Granger causality existes among domestic tourism,inbound tourism income and economic growth. In conclusion, Huangshan City should attach great importance to the tourism development and increase tourism investment. Moreover,the government should put forward a long-term strategy about balancing the tourism development and economic growth.

关 键 词：旅游发展 协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 黄山市 

分 类 号：F590.3[经济管理—旅游管理]