基于气候变化背景下的人工防雹效果统计检验:以青海省东部农业区为例  

A statistics evaluation of hail suppression effect under the background of climate change:A case study of east agricultural region in Qinghai Province

作　　者：王黎俊[1,2] 银燕[1] 郭三刚[2] 林春英[2] 龚静[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学中国气象局大气物理与大气环境重点开放实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]青海省人工影响天气办公室,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2012年第5期524-532,共9页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金博导类资助课题(20113228110002)

摘　　要：采用青海省东部农业区1961—2010年6—9月雷暴日数、降雹日数及雹灾面积资料,利用气候变化趋势分析、历史回归分析及显著性检验等方法,分析了近50a雷暴日数、降雹日数的变化趋势,以雷暴日数变化趋势的最优显著性拟合值为自变量预测了降雹日数的自然变化趋势,并由降雹日数趋势值与自然趋势期望值的差异显著性检验定性说明了气候变化背景下人工防雹效果,通过雷暴日数和雹灾面积的历史回归分析及显著性检验定量估计了人工防雹效果。结果表明:在自然背景也发生同样趋势性变化的情况下,降雹日数在1961—1990年没有显著的减少趋势,未能检验出显著的人工防雹效果;1991—2010年减少趋势显著,通过了0.001信度的显著性检验,人工防雹效果显著。1991—2010年青海省东部农业区平均人工防雹减灾率为52.6%,可信度为95%,但具体年份之间差异较大。Base on the thunderstorm days, hail days and hail damage area data in east agricultural region of Qinghai Province from June to September from 1961 to 2010 ,the climate change trend,regressive a- nalysis and significance test methods are used to analyse the tendency of thunderstorm days and hail days in recent fifty years. The natural variation tendency of hail days is forecasted with the optimum fit- ring value of thunderstorm days tendency as independent variable. The effect of artificial hail suppres- sion under the background of climate change is qualitatively illustrated based on the significant differ- ence between the tendency and natural trend of hail days. Meanwhile, the effect of artificial hail sup- pression is quantitatively analyzed based on the regressive analysis and significance test of the thunder- storm days and hail damage area. Results show that： 1 ） The hail days has no an obvious decreasing trend from 1961 to 1990 under the same trend of background of climate change, therefore the artificial hail suppression effect is not remarkable. In contrast,the change trend of hail days from 1991 to 2010 de- creases notably,with a significance level of 0. 001 ,proving that the artificial hail suppression effect is remarkable. 2）There exists some fluctuations in some years, but the average rate of artificial hail sup- pression and mitigation is 52. 6% with the 95% confidence level in east agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1991 to 2010.

关 键 词：人工防雹效果 统计检验 雷暴日数 降雹日数 雹灾面积 

分 类 号：P482[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]