全球变暖形势下中国陆表水分的变化  

Simulated changes of land surface water associated with global warming over China

作　　者：张文君[1,2] 谭桂容[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2012年第5期550-563,共14页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41005049;41075082);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)201206016;GYHY(QX)201206017)

摘　　要：利用政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告(IPCCAR4)中的10个耦合模式CO2加倍试验和控制试验的模拟结果,分析了全球变暖背景下中国水分的变化。结果表明,随着全球变暖,东亚夏季风增强,冬季风减弱,使得冬夏季向中国区域输送的水汽都增强;中国区域降水,夏季除长江流域外基本都增加,冬季除华南外都增加。夏季降水蒸发差(P-E)除了在东北和南方增加外,从长江流域一直到西北有一带状减小带;冬季几乎所有模式的P-E表现为北方增加、南方减小。在全球变暖背景下,降水、蒸发和径流的综合结果以及积雪的作用使得土壤湿度在干旱区增加,且冬季干旱区土壤变湿的强度和范围大于夏季,然而在其他区域土壤湿度减少。上述结论是基于多模式集合平均结果,对未来气候的预估具有一定的参考价值,然而模式间存在较强差异性,仍具有较大不确定性。Changes of soil moisture over China along with global wanning are explored through compa- ring the control and double CO2 experiments in 10 coupled models participating in the 4th Assessment Report（AR4） of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）. The results show that the sum- mer monsoon enhances and the winter monsoon weakens over East Asia under the global warming. More water vapor is transported to China during both winter and summer. Precipitation increases in al- most all area of China except for the Yangtze River in summer and South China in winter. The differ- ence between precipitation and evaporation （P-E） during summer displays an increase over Northeast and southern China, and a decrease extending from the Yangtze River to Northwest China. During win- ter, almost all models simulate an increasing （ a decreasing） P-E over northern （southern） China. Under the global warming, changes in precipitation, evaporation, runoff and snow melting over China collec- tively cause an increase in soil moisture over arid region, and the increase is stronger in winter than that in summer. However, the soil moisture decreases over other regions. These results are based on multi- model ensemble mean, which is of value to some degree for future climate prediction;whereas these models exhibit variety and uncertainty.

关 键 词：IPCC 土壤湿度 耦合模式 全球变暖 中国 夏季 冬季 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343