气候变化情景下未来赣北第四纪红壤坡面土壤侵蚀的预估  

Prediction of slope erosion in quaternary red soil region of northern Jiangxi province under future climate change scenarios

作　　者：马良[1] 左长清[2] 邱国玉[3] 

机构地区：[1]山东省水利科学研究院,山东省水资源与水环境重点实验室,济南250013 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,水利部水土保持生态工程技术研究中心 [3]北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院,北京100044

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2012年第21期105-112,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201101057);水利部引进国际先进水利科学技术计划(948)项目(201029);国家自然科学基金(41140013);国家自然科学青年基金(40971063)

摘　　要：为评估未来气候条件下的土壤侵蚀变化的响应,该研究利用IPCC AR4中17个全球大气环流模式在SRES B1(低排放)、A1B(中排放)和A2(高排放)这3种典型排放情景下的未来降水预测,结合坡面土壤侵蚀WEPP模型,在对模型验证效果良好的基础上,参照集合预报方法,对未来至21世纪末赣北地区典型第四纪红壤坡面的土壤侵蚀进行预估。研究结果表明,虽不同大气环流模式的预估表现各异,但与基准期相比,确定未来降雨量增加,径流量很可能增加,坡面侵蚀也可能增加。未来降雨和侵蚀出现递增趋势,并延续至本世纪末。3种情景下预估的坡面土壤侵蚀平均水平均高于基准期,其中温室气体浓度最高的A2情景增幅最大。随降雨、径流及土壤侵蚀递增趋势的持续,至本世纪中后期(2051-2099年)红壤坡面的土壤侵蚀到达峰值。Predictions of slope erosion from 2012-2099 were made in typical case of quaternary red soil region using the downscaled future precipitation from 17 global climate models （GCMs） under SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （ IPCC AR4） and the physically based model WEPP. The model was calibrated and validated with the satisfied results by the observed data. The ensemble method was applied in the erosion prediction, and the probabilities of changes of rainfall amount, surface runoff and erosion in different of scenarios and GCMs were tested and analyzed. The prediction results from different GCMs were remarkable divergence. Compared with the current situation, the virtually certain increasing precipitation will very likely increase surface runoff and will likely increase erosion in the future. Furthermore, three time series of annual rainfall amount, runoff and erosion modulus have the rise tendency until the end of this century. The averages of soil erosion modulus of the predictive period under all three scenarios are obviously higher than that of the present. And SRES A2 scenario which represents the highest concentrations of greenhouse gases has a biggest increment among the three scenarios. Slope erosion in quaternary red soil region of Northern Jiangxi province will reach the peak in the late period of this century with a continuous increasing tendency.

关 键 词：气候变化 土壤 侵蚀 WEPP模型 红壤 

分 类 号：S157[农业科学—土壤学]