绿色建筑项目的风险因素识别与风险路径分析  

Risk Factors Identification and Risk Path Analysis on Green Building Project

作　　者：王景慧[1] 秦旋[1] 万欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《施工技术》2012年第11期30-34,共5页Construction Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51148010);中央高校基础科研业务费资助项目(JB-ZR1122)

摘　　要：针对绿色建筑项目的风险管理问题是一个复杂系统问题,各风险因素之间具有交叉关联关系,提出了运用系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)方法来进行风险因素识别与风险路径分析的构想。以承包商视角采用系统动力学理论为基础建立了绿色建筑项目风险识别反馈模型图,分析了项目目标风险与各风险因素之间的相互关系以及风险来源,绘制影响目标风险的原因树及风险路径反馈图。通过这些分析,可以帮助承包商辨识绿色建筑的关键风险因素,并为有效应对绿色建筑的风险做准备。The risk management of green building project is a complex problem,and the risk factors are mutually interactive.The method of system dynamics（SD） was proposed for risk factor identification and risk path analysis.From the contractors＇ perspective,a green building projects risk identification feedback model was built using the SD theory.The relationship between the project objectives risk and individual risk factors were analyzed as well as the sources of risks.The target risks＇ cause tree and risk path feedback figures were drawn.These analyses can help the contractors identify the key risk factors of green buildings and be prepared for dealing with the risks.

关 键 词：绿色建筑 项目管理 风险评估 风险管理 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TU712[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]