黄河上中游流域夏季降水预测的概念模型  

Summer precipitation climate forecast conceptual model for upper and middle reaches of Yellow River valley

作　　者：陈少勇[1,2] 林纾[1] 尚俊武 郑延祥 

机构地区：[1]西北区域气候中心,兰州730020 [2]白银市气象局,白银730900

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第12期119-123,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：公益性行业专项基金(GYHY201006038-5-1);白银市科技计划项目(GK2011-2-087A)资助

摘　　要：选取黄河上中游流域43站1961-2006年夏季降水量作为研究对象,应用线性相关分析、EOF分析等方法,分析了流域内夏季降水与北半球100hPa、500hPa、海平面气压、海表温度、地面射出长波辐射(OLR)、青藏高原和西北干旱区地面气温以及74项环流特征量等资料前期至同期的关系,建立了该区域夏季降水气候预测的概念模型。Using the ground monthly precipitation data from 43 stations along Yellow River valley and the monthly mean girded 100hPa,500 hPa,SLP,SST,OLR data,NCEP reanalysis method,temperature data of the Tibet Plateau and 74 circulation characteristic quantities by CMA,the relationship between the precipitation and their dates in Northern Hemisphere was analyzed by EOF,correlation analysis etc.the climate forecast conceptual model on precipitation of the region in summer was established.

关 键 词：夏季降水 气候预测 概念模型 EOF 相关系数 黄河流域 上中游 

分 类 号：P456.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]