近50a来黑河流域气候变暖对农业生产的影响  

Impacts of climate change on agriculture production in the Heihe river basin in recent 50 years

作　　者：赵一飞[1] 张勃[1] 张亚宁[1] 王强[1] 何旭强[1] 尹海霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第12期130-136,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961038);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806021-07);生态经济学省级重点学科(5002-021);西北师范大学知识与科技创新工程项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-66)资助

摘　　要：利用1960～2009年间黑河流域及其周围15个气象站点的逐月气温观测数据,运用多年趋势线法、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析等方法,对黑河流域气候变化进行了研究。结果表明:近50年来黑河流域气温总体呈增加趋势(β值为0.027℃/a),线性增长率为0.28℃/10a,相当于50年中气温升高了1.4℃,其中20世纪70～80年代气温上升缓慢,至20世纪90年代以后气温显著上升;空间分布上,年均气温变化呈现出由西向东逐渐增温的趋势,其中流域中上游东部和下游地区气温升温幅度较大,以中游民乐和下游额济纳旗最为显著;流域年均气温变化存在着10～15年左右的主振荡周期和6年左右的次振荡周期,其中以13年左右的振荡周期最强;流域年平均气温在1987年发生突变,之后进入偏暖期;同时进一步分析了气候变暖对农业生产的影响,为合理利用本地气候资源提供参考依据,使流域农业得到持续稳定的发展。Heihe River is located in the arid region of northwestern China.The observed meteorological data collected from 15 weather stations covering the 50-year period from 1960 to 2009 were analyzed to understand the trend of air-temperature change,cyclic and abrupt in Heihe river basin,by employing linear trend analysis as well as Mann-Kendall rank analysis,wavelet,R/S,and abrupt analysis.The result showed that： on the whole,the annual mean air-temperature in Heihe river basin markedly had a upward trend with the warming rate of 0.28℃/10a（at the α=0.05 significant level β =0.027）during the recent 50 years.The result indicated that the temperature of this region increased by 1.4℃ in the last five decades,which rose slowly about 70~80＇s temperature in twentieth Century,until temperature rose significantly after nineteen ninties.For the spatial distribution,the average annual temperature changed gradually from west to east showing a warming trend,in which the eastern watershed upstream and downstream temperatures heated up a big margin to the middle and lower reaches of folk music Ejinaqi the most significant;Annual mean air-temperature changed in Heihe river basin fluctuated with a cycle of 10-15 and a subordinate cycle of 5 years.Particularly,the 13 years oscillation was dominated.The annual mean air temperature in Heihe river basin abrupt change point was in 1987,prior to the point was a cool stage and after it a warm stage emerged.Further analysis of climate warming on agricultural production can provides references the rational use of local resources and the sustained and stable development of agriculture.

关 键 词：黑河流域 气候变化 趋势分析 农业生产 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]