气象条件对油松毛虫的影响及其预测模型的构建  

Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Dendrolimus tabulaeformis and Establishment of Its Prediction Model

作　　者：周广学[1] 张国林[1] 梁群[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省朝阳市气象局,朝阳122000

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2012年第11期131-134,共4页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：辽宁省科技计划调整项目

摘　　要：根据油松毛虫(Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu)越冬死亡率、发生量监测资料,运用统计分析方法,普查了影响油松毛虫活动的主要气象因子。以当年1月平均气温、2月最高气温、2月地面最高气温、1月地面平均最低气温及3月地面平均最高气温等气象因子建立了油松毛虫幼虫越冬死亡率预测模型,历史拟合率91.9%。以前1年8月下旬平均气温、前1年10月上旬降水量、前1年12月平均最高气温、当年1月中旬平均气温及当年4月上旬平均气温等气象因子建立了油松毛虫发生量预测模型,历史拟合率为88.2%。预报模型可以应用于防虫减灾工程。The main meteorological factors affecting the activities of Dendrolimus tabugaeformis are investigated on the basis of monitoring data of overwinter mortality and occurrence level of D. tabulaeformis by statistical analysis methods. A prediction model for wintering mortality of D. tabulaeformis larva was built based on the meteorological factors, including average temperature in January in current year, the maximum temperature in February, the maximum ground temperature in February, the minimum mean ground temperature in January, and the maximum mean ground temperature in March. The fitting rate of the prediction model for wintering mortality reached 91.9%. A prediction model for occurrence level of D. tabulae-formis was also established based on the average temperature in late August of the previous year, precipitation in the begin- ning of October of the previous year, the maximum average temperature in December of the previous year, the average temperature in mid-January of current year, and the average temperature in the beginning of April of current year. The fitting rate of the prediction model for occurrence level was 88.2%. The two prediction models can be applied to the comprehensive prevention from plague of insects and avoiding losses.

关 键 词：油松毛虫 气象因子 发生量 死亡率 预测模型 

分 类 号：S431.2[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S763.421[农业科学—植物保护]