中国区域碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系研究  

Research on the Decoupling Relationship Between Chinese Regional Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth

作　　者：肖宏伟[1] 易丹辉[1] 周明勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学法学院,北京100872

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2012年第11期1-10,共10页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目"中国节能减排空间结构优化研究"(12XNH156)

摘　　要：利用Tapio脱钩模型,研究了"十五"和"十一五"两个时期区域碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩弹性,从省级区域、东中西部、经济发展水平三个角度对脱钩弹性进行了测算和因果链分解。结果显示,"十一五"期间,我国把节能减排作为调结构、转方式的重要抓手,区域碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩关系处于弱脱钩状态,且其脱钩弹性较"十五"期间下降幅度较大。其中,减排弹性变动不大,工业节能弹性变成弱脱钩状态,工业节能成效显著,工业化弹性、城市化弹性和经济发展弹性均呈增加趋势。因此,要切断区域经济增长与碳排放之间的联系,必须加大对海南、宁夏等省级区域、中西部地区和经济发展水平低组的减排力度。This paper researches decoupling elasticity of regional carbon emissions and economic growth between ＂Tenth Five＂ and ＂Eleventh Five＂ by using Tapio decoupling model,from three perspectives including the provincial administration regions,the divisions of east area,middle area and west area and the different levels in terms of economic development with decoupling elasticity estimates and causal chain decomposition.The results show that： during the ＂Tenth Five＂ period energy conservation as an important starting point for the adjustment of economic structure and transform the mode,the decoupling relationship between the regional carbon emissions and economic development is in the weak decoupling state,and its decoupling elastic decline compared to the ＂Tenth Five＂ period.The emission reduction elasticity show little change,industrial energy efficiency elasticity becomes weak decoupling state,and industrial energy efficiency with remarkable results,elasticity of industrialization,urbanization elasticity and economic development elastic are increasing.

关 键 词：区域经济发展 碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 因果链分解 

分 类 号：F062.3[经济管理—政治经济学]